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Dear Readers

I will not be posting here for the forseeable future. As I mentioned to some of you already, we have been successful in our application to the Central Bank in Dublin Ireland to launch our own stock broking firm. I will now be dedicating my time to this and developing a website for the business that will contain similar new flow but in real time mode. For those of you that have found the site useful and are interested in any of our business services ( trading or advisory or just for a simple chat), please contact me at ukoilshares@gmail.com for further details. Thank you for all the comments and feedback. Good luck to each and all of you in the future with your investments

Murph

GOODBODY NOTE ON TULLOW DATED 21st FEB

Tullow (Buy, Closing Price £3.90)
Woodside FY06 release.
Analyst: Gerry HenniganAustralian-based Woodside Petroleum, the operator of the Chinguetti field offshore Mauritania in which Tullow has a 19% stake, released FY06 results this morning. The relevant details from a Tullow perspective were: (i) production is currently averaging 20 -22 kbopd; (ii) initial production from infill well Chinguetti-18 is to commence by the end of Q1 at a rate of 6 - 10 kbopd; (iii) ongoing workover to optimise production at Chinguetti-14; and (iv) new seismic on Tiof and Chinguetti is to start in March. While the current rate of production continues to drift lower (average rate of 23.4 kbopd in Q4'06), the rate of decline has slowed and the Chinguetti-18 infill well, which had a net pay of 35m, should reverse the trend once production commences at the end of March. We are forecasting net production to Tullow of 4.1 kbopd out over the forecast period on the assumption that production will at best stabilise. Chinguetti-18 may provide some upside to that, albeit that the long term implications of efforts to boost production remain at an early stage. On reserves, Woodside recorded a 27% increase year-on-year, though within that there was a significant cut in Chinguetti reserves to 11.7 mbo down from a pre-production level of 123 mbo.

Oil settles above $60

Oil prices settle above $60 a barrelNEW YORK (AP) - Oil prices settled above $60 a barrel for the first time this year on Wednesday after a spate of refinery shutdowns threatened to cut into supply. Increasing tensions over Iran's uranium enrichment program also helped to boost prices.Light, sweet crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed $1.22 to settle at $60.07 a barrel. Brent crude for April delivery also rose $1.37 to $59.35 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.The refinery shutdowns also drove products higher. Heating oil gained nearly 4 cents to settle Wednesday at $1.6816 a gallon, while natural gas futures rose 6 cents to $7.646 per 1,000 cubic feet. Gasoline futures settled at $1.7047 a gallon, up 5.7 cents.TEPPCO Partners LP said Wednesday that part of a refined products pipeline was shut down after a leak was discovered in Indiana, according to Dow Jones Newswires. TEPPCO gave no estimate of how much diesel was lost or when the pipeline will be back in service.The news comes on the heels of an AP report late Tuesday that said BP shut down its Northstar oil field in the Arctic Ocean after a small leak was found in a gas line. The shutdown has taken about 40,000 barrels of oil offline each day Friday or Saturday, according to a BP spokesman. The company doesn't know when the field will resume operations."The BP news late yesterday didn't have that much of a pop on the market, but after the one in Indiana, these refinery issues got the market back on the upside," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "Some people are also thinking that Iran is adding a bit to the buying in the market today."The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N nuclear watchdog, was expected to confirm on Thursday that Iran -- OPEC's No. 2 exporter -- continues to enrich uranium, a finding that could trigger harsher U.N. sanctions.On Wednesday, Iran called for talks with the U.S. regarding its uranium enrichment activities, but showed no signs of halting its program."The enemy is making a big mistake if it thinks it can thwart the will of the Iranian nation to achieve the peaceful use of nuclear technology," Iranian state TV's Web site quoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying.On Tuesday, Ahmadinejad offered a more conciliatory tone on the issue, saying it was no problem for Iran to halt enrichment, but that "fair talks" demanded a similar gesture from the West.Traders are also looking to the release of the government's fuel stocks data due out Thursday.Data from the Department of Energy is expected to show domestic crude oil stockpiles rose in the week ended Feb. 16, while distillates are seen falling, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.Crude oil inventories are expected to build by about 700,000 barrels, according to the mean of nine analysts' forecasts. Distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 2.8 million barrels.Gasoline inventories are seen building by about 100,000 barrels, the analysts' average says."This report is likely to reflect some of the coldest temperatures we've had" this winter, Flynn said.Bitterly cold temperatures in the first weeks of February helped boost oil prices to nearly $60 a barrel from a 20-month low of $49.90 on Jan. 18, after an unseasonably warm January.However, oil prices dropped more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday after warmer weather moved into the Northeast, which consumes 80 percent of the nation's heating oil. The U.S. National Weather Service is forecasting above-normal temperatures in the region through March 5."People are thinking the U.S. weather is going to be much warmer than expected, so heating oil demand should be easing," said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist with Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also expects fuel demand in the region to be below long-term averages this week, the first such forecast in a month.Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Futures Research, pointed out that while demand for heating oil typically declines week by week during this time of year, inventories also fall through March and into April."The typical seasonal low occurs in the third week of April," Evans said.

LME REVIEW

LONDON (Dow Jones)--London Metal Exchange tin built upon earlier strength, soaring to a fresh record high Wednesday, with market participants keeping a close watch on the developments in Indonesia for further price direction, traders said.
Three-month tin traded just shy of the $14,000 a metric ton mark driven by follow-through momentum buying after a strong morning session in Europe, a trader said.
News that seven Indonesian tin producers may be granted export licenses on Feb. 23 - including the world's largest integrated miner PT Timah - has the potential to send prices lower, but traders have said they will wait before believing the news. This uncertainty has helped push prices higher near term.
Supply concerns in Indonesia have dominated the tin market of late. Indonesia recently shut down its private mining and smelting operations on Bangka island, where the country's largest tin reserve is located, over allegations of environmental damage and tax evasion.
The Trade Ministry then set new requirements on tin exports, including a minimum 99.85% purity standard, and demanded producers prove they mine tin ore from their own concessions and have paid royalties before they can export.
For the time being, further upside is expected until clarification of the Indonesian situation, traders said.
Meanwhile, several of the base metals rose during afternoon European hours due to bargain-hunting, said Michael Widmer of Calyon.
Three-month copper rose over 1% to a PM kerb of $5,790/ton from Tuesday, while three-month aluminum rose 0.5% to a PM kerb of $2,757/ton.
Earlier, prices had fallen due to a widening of the spreads and a push beneath key technical sell-stops, said an aluminum trader. However, good support is seen around $2,740/ton and then $2,680/ton, the trader added.
Three-month nickel remained slightly under pressure on profit-taking and fell 0.2% to a PM kerb of $39,800/ton.
However, LME nickel stocks fell 468 tons to 3,930 tons Wednesday, which provides good price support. With canceled warrants - or material accounted for and to be drawn down at a later date - at 47% Wednesday, available stocks comprise less than one day's worth of global nickel consumption.
Three-month lead edged back up towards its recent record high of $1,845/ton as strength spread across the entire complex.
Moreover, ongoing supply concerns at Xstrata's 161,000-ton Northfleet lead refinery in the U.K. further supported prices. Xstrata has temporarily restricted deliveries to Northfleet, which takes its feedstock from Mount Isa in Australia. Prices in dollar a metric ton.
3 Months Metal Bid-Ask Change from
Tuesday PM kerb
Copper 5790.0-5800.0 Up 70
Lead 1825.0-1826.0 Dn 5
Zinc 3350.0-3360.0 Up 25
Aluminum 2757.0-2758.0 Up 15
Nickel 39500.0-39505.0 Dn 300
Tin 13825.0-13850.0 Up 335
Aluminum Alloy 2200.0-2210.0 Unch
Aluminum Alloy 2170.0-2180.0 Up 10

Gold

BULLET: GOLD: Spiked to the $682.00 level after a slow climb.GOLD: Spiked to the $682.00 level after a slow steady climb to $673 accelerated, prompting a round of stop-driven buying through the $675/676 level that had capped the pair of late. One trader suspecting hedge fund demand behind the move after those names were sellers of the metal yesterday as it slid to lows near $655.00, now perhaps caugth wrong-footed.

Oil bounces

I mentioned last night that we would probably see a bounce in oil prices today as traders eye inventory data out a day later this week due to hol on Monday. Cold weather in the US last week has traders betting we will see big draws on distillates and nat gas supplies tomorrow. But we have seen this pattern over last few weeks..buying the rumour and selling the fact.. The cold weather acting as support is slowly unwinding. Wouldn't be surprised therefore to see oil come off after the reports tomorrow...

Will be interesting to see if oil can close over 60..technically this could put a new slant on things and send it higher short term

Oil

Oil edges up as traders expect lower US stocks in tomorrow's dataLONDON (AFX) - Oil rose, reversing earlier losses, as the market prepared for weekly US stocks data which is expected to show a drop in inventories.The Energy Information Administration will release the data tomorrow, a day later than usual as the US celebrated a national holiday on Monday. At 5.11 pm, front-month Brent North Sea crude contracts for April delivery were up 64 cents to 58.62 usd per barrel. Oil shed 16 cents to close at 57.98 usd yesterday.Meanwhile, front-month New York light sweet crude contracts for April delivery were up 46 cents to 59.31 usd a barrel, after falling 16 cents to close at 57.07 usd yesterday. "We had a pretty cold week last week," said Adam Sieminski, adding, "expectations for a gas draw are high."Gas prices are heading towards the highest level of this year.US/Iranian geopolitical concerns are also supporting prices.The UN had set a deadline of Wednesday for Iran to comply with its uranium enrichment programme, but "Tehran has all but scoffed at the idea," said Altavest trader, Tom Hartmann. "It appears that we could be seeing some buying due to Iranian posturing over its uranium enrichment programme," added Hartmann.However, gains were capped as demand looks set to fall on warmer temperatures. The US National Weather Service is forecasting temperatures in the US Northeast -- which consumes 80 pct of the nation's heating oil -- to stay above average levels through to March 5.While stocks last week are expected to have dropped, some analysts said the recent cold snap was not enough to overturn the growth in inventories as a result of a mostly mild winter.Prices in New York briefly dipped below the critical 50 usd level in mid-January as the US enjoyed an unusually warm winter.