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Friday, February 16, 2007

Oil

Oil prices settle above $59 per barrelNEW YORK (AP) - Oil prices jumped more than $1 per barrel Friday, led by gains for heating fuels, in another volatile trading day for crude.Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $1.40 to settle at $59.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dipping as low as $57.59 earlier in the session.Helping to push up prices was a U.S. warning that Nigerian militants may be planning to expand their activities beyond the restive southern petroleum-producing regions.The Lagos-based consulate said possible targets could include expatriate personnel, Western businesses or facilities and locales visited by tourists and foreigners.Citigroup Futures Research energy analyst Tim Evans said traders were also taking a second look at natural-gas inventory numbers released Thursday, which helped boost heating fuel prices.Last week's withdrawal of 259 billion cubic feet from underground storage was short of some analysts' expectations, but it was the biggest since 1997, he said.Natural gas prices rose 21.1 cents to $7.503 per 1,000 cubic feet, and heating oil prices rose 4.63 cents to $1.6734 a gallon, helping to lead up crude prices.Brent crude rose $1.35 to $58.95 on London's ICE futures exchange.Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. said traders also may have been skeptical about forecasts for warmer weather for the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market.The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it expects above-normal temperatures next week to end a spate of freezing weather in the U.S. Northeast, which accounts for 80 percent of the nation's heating oil demand.Oil price swings have become the norm recently, as 11 of the prior 16 sessions saw daily moves of more than $1, Cameron Hanover's Peter Beutel wrote in a research report. On Thursday, prices dropped more than $1 before settling down just a penny.Analysts said the upcoming three-day weekend, with the Nymex closed on President's Day, and the March oil contract's expiring on Tuesday may also have pushed up volatility.In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 4.81 cents to $1.6453 per gallon.

LME REVIEW

LONDON (Dow Jones)--London Metal Exchange lead surged to a fresh record high Friday before coming under slight pressure along with the rest of the complex, but traders expect volatility Monday with the U.S. out on holiday.
"Many of the base metals came off Friday but not by very much," said one LME analyst in New York. "It's been a relatively quiet day."
U.S. traders squaring positions ahead of the long weekend have also added to price pressure, said another trader in London. Monday, the markets might see some volatility as traders try to move prices while the U.S. is out on holiday, the trader added. The U.S. marks President's Day Monday.
Three-month lead surged to a new record high of $1,805 a metric ton, driven by technical and systematic buying, a continual drawdown in LME inventories and ongoing supply concerns. The metal rose to a PM kerb of $1,785 a metric ton, up roughly 1% from Thursday.
LME lead stocks fell 900 tons to 33,300 tons Friday. Lead inventories have fallen over 20% since the start of 2007.
News earlier this week that Xstrata PLC declared force majeure at its Northfleet lead refinery in the U.K. following reduced supplies from its Mount Isa smelter in Australia, provided further upside momentum.
Northfleet produced around 161,350 tons of lead last year, using feedstock from Mount Isa.
In other metals, three-month aluminum fell nearly 1% to a PM kerb of $2,793/ton on news that Alcoa said a partial restart of production is in progress at the CBG bauxite operations in Guinea.
Bauxite is the raw ingredient to make alumina, which is in turn refined to make aluminum and Guinea is the world's largest exporter of bauxite.
However, Alcoa was unable to say whether bauxite shipments had resumed. Shipping companies told Dow Jones Newswires earlier that vessels to transport bauxite from Guinea remain outside the port and aren't expected to be able to return to next week at the earliest.
Nevertheless, aluminum prices didn't fall sharply on the news because the ongoing tightness in the nearby spreads is underpinning prices, said the New York analyst.
Earlier Friday, three-month tin surged to a record high of $13,300/ton before retreating to a PM kerb of $13,140/ton. Support was driven by ongoing supply problems in Indonesia and declining stocks.
Earlier Friday, an Indonesian trade official said state-owned tin producer PT Timah Tbk. can no longer legally export tin as it hasn't been reissued with an export license under new regulations.
Indonesia recently shut down its private mining and smelting operations on Bangka island, where the country's largest tin reserve is located.
Indonesia's PT Koba Tin - a key industry player - said recently that it is still allowed to mine and smelt tin from Bangka-Belitung province while it is under police investigation. Industry sources say Koba, which produces around 24,000 tons of tin a year, is only shipping about 20% of its normal amount.
A decline in tin stocks by 20 tons to 10,225 tons Friday added to price support. Tin inventories have fallen by roughly 20% since the start of 2007.
Three-month nickel prices fell to a PM kerb of $38,900/ton, down over 1% from Thursday on trade selling. Adding to price pressure, nickel stocks rose by 162 metric tons to 4,152 tons Friday.
However, with canceled warrants - or material accounted for and to be drawn down at a later date - at 52% Friday, available stocks comprise less than half a day's worth of global nickel consumption. Prices in dollar a metric ton.
3 Months Metal Bid-Ask Change from
Thursday PM kerb
Copper 5805.0-5810.0 Dn 35
Lead 1785.0-1790.0 Up 30
Zinc 3380.0-3385.0 Dn 45
Aluminum 2793.0-2795.0 Dn 21
Nickel 38900.0-39000.0 Dn 600
Tin 13140.0-13145.0 Up 65
Aluminum Alloy 2210.0-2230.0 N/A
Aluminum Alloy 2180.0-2200.0 Dn 20

Oil

Oil prices rise above $58 per barrel NEW YORK (AP) - Oil prices rose above $58 per barrel Friday led by gains in heating fuel prices, erasing earlier losses in another volatile trading day for crude.Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 73 cents to $58.72 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract earlier dipped as low as $57.59.Such swings have become the norm recently, as 11 of the past 16 sessions have seen daily moves of more than $1, Cameron Hanover's Peter Beutel wrote in a research report. On Thursday, prices dropped more than $1 before settling down just a penny."If we had been looking for closure, for some type of conclusion yesterday, we did not get it," Beutel wrote. "Yesterday's final move was negligible, and does not help us solve the problem of where this may be headed next."Brent crude rose 71 cents to $58.31 on London's ICE futures exchange.Leading oil prices higher were increases for heating oil and natural gas. Heating oil prices rose 2.17 cents to $1.6488 a gallon, while natural gas added 20.6 cents to $7.498 per 1,000 cubic feet.Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. said some traders may be skeptical of forecasts for warmer weather for the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market.The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it expects above-normal temperatures next week to end a spate of freezing weather in the U.S. Northeast, which accounts for 80 percent of the nation's heating oil demand. But the bitter cold of recent weeks hasn't resulted in as sharp a drawdown of heating oil stockpiles as market analysts expected.Traders were also digesting news from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that said crude output from its 10 quota-bound members fell 112,000 barrels a day in January to 26.759 million barrels a day.The decline was broadly in line with recent industry surveys and left the 10 members overshooting their production target by 459,000 barrels a day.OPEC oil exports in the four weeks ending March 3 are seen falling 160,000 barrels per day from a month ago, according to a report by U.K.-based tanker-tracking consultants Oil Movements.In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.39 cents to $1.6111 per gallon.

COMEX COPPER

1403 GMT [Dow Jones] - Profit-taking after a recent run-up, plus a weak U.S. housing-starts report, have left Comex copper under pressure in early trading. "We've had a nice move in there," says Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with Future Path Trading. The March futures ran up from a low of $2.3855 on Feb. 8 to a high of $2.6900 Thursday. "It looks like people are taking some money out of the market," says Lesh. Meanwhile, January housing starts fell 14.3% to an annual rate of 1.408 million when 1.6 million had been forecast. "What does that say about demand for copper in the spring?" asks Lesh rhetorically. March copper is down 4.40 cents to $2.6200 and hit its $2.6170 low for the day about the time that housing starts and as-expected PPI were being released. (ALS)

Aluminum

1347 GMT [Dow Jones] London Metal Exchange aluminum is down on unconfirmed reports that production has resumed at the CBG operations in the Republic of Guinea, a broker says. Reports suggest bauxite mining and deliveries to Guinea's Kamsar port have resumed after the government lifted martial law in the area. Bauxite makes alumina which in turn produces aluminum. LME aluminum trades last at $2795 a metric ton, down 1% on the day.(ADH)

US HOUSING DATA

BULLET: [Jan US housing starts -14.3% to 1.408m rate, -2.8%..[Jan US housing starts -14.3% to 1.408m rate, permits -2.8% to 1.568m]. Starts lowest level since Aug 1997. Forecasters had expected 1.6m rate. Two prev. mos barely revised. 1-fam starts plunged 11.2%, to lowest lvlsince Aug '97, while multi-units -24.1%. West -28.5% (10-yr low lvl), MW -15.2% (low lvl since Jan 1991), South -11.8% had big drops. NE +8.9%.Total permits lvl was lower in Nov, Oct but Jan 1-fam permits lvl 1.121m lowest since Dec 1997. Jan. total permits -28.6% yoy. Jan. completions -1.2% to 1.880m. Jan. unadj number of homes permitted but not started +2.9% vs. Dec.

LME MIDDAY

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Traders expect further gains for London Metal Exchange tin Friday after the metal hit a record high earlier due to ongoing supply uncertainties in Indonesia.
Three-month tin reached an all-time high of $13,300 a metric ton at 1030 GMT, up roughly 1.5% from Thursday due to Indonesian problems, said brokers.
Earlier Friday, an Indonesian trade official said state-owned tin producer PT Timah Tbk. can no longer legally export tin, as it hasn't been reissued an export license under new regulations.
Indonesia recently shut down its private mining and smelting operations on Bangka island, where the country's largest tin reserve is located.
Indonesia's PT Koba Tin - a key industry player - said recently that it is still allowed to mine and smelt tin from Bangka-Belitung province while it is under police investigation. Industry sources say Koba, which produces around 24,000 tons of tin a year, is only shipping about 20% of its normal amount.
At the same time, uncertainty over the fate of Bolivia's Vinto smelter since it was seized from Switzerland's Glencore International AG and renationalized provided underlying price support.
In addition, a decline in tin stocks by 20 tons to 10,225 tons Friday has provided a price boost. Inventories have fallen roughly 20% since the start of 2007.
In other metals, three-month nickel traded just off Thursday's record high of $39,501/ton due to trade selling, said a base metals trader. Adding to price pressure, nickel stocks rose by 162 tons to 4,152 tons Friday.
However, with canceled warrants - or material accounted for and to be drawn down at a later date - at 52% Friday, available stocks comprise less than half a day's worth of global nickel consumption.
Nickel eyes $40,000 a ton in the near-term, said the trader. At 1030 GMT, nickel traded at $39,200/ton, down 0.7% from Thursday.
Meanwhile, three-month copper consolidated after Thursday's run-up. At 1030 GMT, copper traded at $5,832/ton, down 0.3% from Thursday.
A sharp drawdown in lead stocks by 900 tons to 33,300 tons Friday bolstered lead prices up to a two-month high. Lead inventories have fallen over 20% from the start of 2007. At 1030 GMT, lead traded at $1,760/ton, up 0.3% from Thursday.
At 1030 GMT, three-month aluminum traded at $2,809/ton, down roughly 0.2% from Thursday while three-month zinc traded at $3,405/ton, down 0.7% from Thursday.

LME MIDDAY

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Traders expect further gains for London Metal Exchange tin Friday after the metal hit a record high earlier due to ongoing supply uncertainties in Indonesia.
Three-month tin reached an all-time high of $13,300 a metric ton at 1030 GMT, up roughly 1.5% from Thursday due to Indonesian problems, said brokers.
Earlier Friday, an Indonesian trade official said state-owned tin producer PT Timah Tbk. can no longer legally export tin, as it hasn't been reissued an export license under new regulations.
Indonesia recently shut down its private mining and smelting operations on Bangka island, where the country's largest tin reserve is located.
Indonesia's PT Koba Tin - a key industry player - said recently that it is still allowed to mine and smelt tin from Bangka-Belitung province while it is under police investigation. Industry sources say Koba, which produces around 24,000 tons of tin a year, is only shipping about 20% of its normal amount.
At the same time, uncertainty over the fate of Bolivia's Vinto smelter since it was seized from Switzerland's Glencore International AG and renationalized provided underlying price support.
In addition, a decline in tin stocks by 20 tons to 10,225 tons Friday has provided a price boost. Inventories have fallen roughly 20% since the start of 2007.
In other metals, three-month nickel traded just off Thursday's record high of $39,501/ton due to trade selling, said a base metals trader. Adding to price pressure, nickel stocks rose by 162 tons to 4,152 tons Friday.
However, with canceled warrants - or material accounted for and to be drawn down at a later date - at 52% Friday, available stocks comprise less than half a day's worth of global nickel consumption.
Nickel eyes $40,000 a ton in the near-term, said the trader. At 1030 GMT, nickel traded at $39,200/ton, down 0.7% from Thursday.
Meanwhile, three-month copper consolidated after Thursday's run-up. At 1030 GMT, copper traded at $5,832/ton, down 0.3% from Thursday.
A sharp drawdown in lead stocks by 900 tons to 33,300 tons Friday bolstered lead prices up to a two-month high. Lead inventories have fallen over 20% from the start of 2007. At 1030 GMT, lead traded at $1,760/ton, up 0.3% from Thursday.
At 1030 GMT, three-month aluminum traded at $2,809/ton, down roughly 0.2% from Thursday while three-month zinc traded at $3,405/ton, down 0.7% from Thursday.

LME INVENTORY REPORT

Copper down 1,500 tonnes at 213,800 tonnesLead down 900 tonnes at 33,300 tonnesNickel up 162 tonnes at 4,152 tonnes Aluminium down 950 tonnes at 761,825 tonnesTin down 20 tonnes at 10,225 tonnesZinc up 50 tonnes at 97,025 tonnes

China CB decision weighs down miners

China central bank hikes bank reserve requirementBEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The People's Bank of China said it has hiked bank reserve requirements, to take effect on Feb 25.The central bank said reserve requirements have been raised by 50 basis points, which would bring the reserves most banks would have to maintain up to 10 pct.

ZINC

0843 GMT [Dow Jones] Zinc's recent move through the psychologically important $3400 a metric ton level is attracting fresh money to the London Metal Exchange market and will likely trigger further gains, a broker notes. Short covering and technical buying adds to the momentum, with prices holding either side of $3400/ton in early trade. LME zinc trades last at $3395/ton, up from $3380/ton overnight and a gain of 10% on the week. (ADH)

Papers

http://www.sharecrazy.com/dailies/paper/index.html

Shanghai copper

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Copper futures traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange settled up Friday for the third consecutive session, as investors expect more gains in three-month London Metal Exchange copper in the coming week.
The benchmark April 2007 contract gained CNY640 to settle at CNY55,500 a metric ton, after trading between CNY55,210/ton and CNY55,960/ton.
Turnover for all Shanghai copper futures fell to 50,888 lots from 92,222 lots Thursday. One lot equals five tons.
"Charts indicate three-month LME copper will likely test higher (levels) in the coming week, when markets are closed here," said Gu Yuan, an analyst at Jinpeng Futures Co.
"Psychological resistance at $6,000 still looks strong," but positive sentiment point to room for further gains, Gu said.
Shanghai's benchmark April contract rose 8.7% this week, while three-month LME copper gained 4.7% this week by Thursday's PM kerb.
Three-month LME copper rose $120 to end the late kerb Thursday at $5,840/ton. It was quoted higher at $5,865/ton around 0700 GMT, when the Shanghai market closed.
At the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Trading Market, a major spot metals market in Shanghai, copper was quoted at CNY56,000-CNY56,200/ton, almost unchanged from Thursday.
Meanwhile, copper stocks at exchange-monitored warehouses rose 4,355 tons from a week ago to 31,007 tons as of Friday, the exchange said after the session closed.
Analysts said market participants had expected the rise due to slower buying ahead of the holiday, which weighed on near-month contracts Thursday and Friday.
Markets in China will be closed next week for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Shanghai's aluminum futures settled higher.
The benchmark May 2007 contract settled CN100 higher at CNY19,800/ton.
China's futures markets are off-limits to foreign investors.
Friday's closing prices in yuan a metric ton versus LME late kerb prices from Thursday in dollars a metric ton:
Copper Change Aluminum Change
Shanghai Apr 55,500 Up 640 May 19,800 Up 100
LME 3Mo $5,840 Up$120 3Mo $2,814 Dn $14