Sunday, February 11, 2007
Saturday's papers
FINANCIAL TIMES
The Lex Column:*Fortress – enjoying a mad scramble for its shares. It is hard to disagree with someone close to do the deal who said that the share price was insane and ridiculous.*Although the FTSE 100 index has been breaking new highs all week, half its constituents have under performed the broader index by 6.8%.*First Group (FGP.L)/Greyhound - Other UK operators of buses have come a cropper in the US though the buoyant share price suggests shareholders are optimistic.*Share buy-backs – there are a few caveats with the fashionable options for companies.*BP (BP.L) - Lord Brown's final pay-packet was always going to be a lightning rod but now we have a US lawyer seeking to freeze Lord Browne’s pay and retirement benefits.THE TIMES
The Business Editor's Column:*John Lasseter, the Pixar film director, is embroiled in a stock option repricing scandal. Also Steve Jobs, found and head of Apple has been chairman and CEO of Pixar – which is awkward.*HSBC's (HSBA.L) Household group in the US underwent big defaults, and there is a message: never buy into a mature book.*Camelot – the changes of its retaining its Lottery licence are about one in just two.*Sainsbury (SBRY.L) bid watchers can probably afford to take their eyes off the ball next week. Richard Campbell-Breeden, the Goldman Sachs adviser to the private equity group interested in Sainsbury, is going ski-ing.DAILY TELEGRAPH
The Comment Column:*It looks as if in the LSE (ILSE.L) bid, Nasdaq's Bob Creifeld has lived to fight another day.*With all the foreign takeovers of British firms, the Government will have to take over responsibility of defending British jobs.
The Questor Column:*Housebuilders – long term Persimmon (PSN.L) and Barratt (BDEV.L) are the best bet.*Avanti Screenmedia (ASG.L) – trading at 16 times 2008's earnings, but few forecasts can factor in the value of a satellite and orbital licence.
What the Brokers Say:*Luminar (LMR.L) – Buy.*Vodafone (VOD.L) – Buy.*National Grid (NG.L) – Hold.*British Airways (BAY.L) – Hold.*Johnson Matthey (JMAT.L) – Sell.*Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) – Sell.*Xstrata (XTA.L) – Sell.*Friends Provident (FP.L) – Sell.*Diageo (DGE.L) – Hold.THE GUARDIAN
No share news today
");
//-->
SHARECRAZY BOOKSHOP OFFER - The Poolside TycoonShareCrazy's very own Malcolm Stacey, former Radio 4 investigative reporter, reveals more closely protected tips on how to make money on the stock market. These tips are disclosed to him by scores of financial experts, including captains of industry, investment bankers, City journalists and government ministers. By Malcolm Stacey. Normal price £8.99, ShareCrazy bookshop price of £8.09. You save £0.90.......CLICK HERE
THE INDEPENDENT
The Outlook Column:*The British deficit in goods and services last year as the highest on record in nominal terms. Luckily we have the City which has helped.*Private equity activity is unstoppable until some of the bigger deals go wrong that is.DAILY MAIL
*The LSE (LSE.L) could do the most exciting thing now: try to turn the tables on Nasdaq.*Trade deficit - this is short-termism on a grand scale which can only lead to Britain becoming a client economy no longer responsible for its own future.*FirstGroup’s (FGP.L) purchase of Greyhound set off an over-enthusiastic spate of share upgrades, but it is all early days, and remember what happened to Stagecoach (SGC.L) and HSBC (HSBA.L) in the US.DAILY EXPRESS
*Rolls-Royce (RR.L) shares still trade at a discount to the European aerospace and defence sector average and for no good reason.*An inevitable stock market shake out need be very dire or over long.DAILY MIRROR
No share news todayTHE SUN
No share news todayCOMMENT AND BID NEWS
*LSE (LSE.L) was poised to see off the Nasdaq bid as its shares closed well above Friday the offer price.*FirstGroup (FGP.L) and Stagecoach (SGC.L) prepare to do battle in the US in the wake of FirstGroup’s purchase of Greyhound buses and Stagecoach plans to expand its US venture.*HBOS (HBOS.L) is paying £21 million for 5% of Sainsbury’s (SBRY.L) in-store bank.*Vodafone (VOD.L) may be pipped at the post in the bid for Hutchison Essar as a fifth contender Russian-owned Altimo was set to join the fray.*Yorkshire Water owner Kelda (KEL.L) is to sell its US business Aquarion to a consortium led by Macquarie Bank.*Student accommodation provider Unite (UTG.L) is buying a portfolio of properties for £114.5 million.*British Energy (BGY.L) shares did nothing last week after rumours that the UK Government could dispose of a chunk of its shareholder after BE released figures last Tuesday.SOME ITEMS THAT COULD INFLUENCE SHARE PRICES
*Pressure on BP (BP.L) chief Lord Browne mounted after lawyers called for a freeze on his pension and pay-off packages which could read to £70 million.*World equity markets reached new highs last week amid economic growth fears.*Rolls Royce (RR.L) chief Sir John Rose warned of the risks of selling off UK plc.*Shares in private equity and hedge fund manager Fortress soared on their New York debut.*Virgin’s Richard Branson offered £13 million to anyone who invests an economical way of ridding the atmosphere of carbon.*De La Rue (DLAR.L) shares on an upbeat trading statement.*SCS Upholstery (SUY.L) shares were down yesterday after sales had been hit by weak demand.*Big Yellow Group (BYG.L) saw chairman sold shares worth £6.7 million.*The Footsie 100 hit a new six-year peak helped by crude oil rising to over $60 million a barrel.*JJB (JJB.L) said it faced costs of £3.8 million after price fixing charges.*Goldman Sachs is to shift one of its most senior executives, Edward Forst, chief administrative officer, from New York to London as the bank adapts its management structure to the grown of its business outside the US.*US car interiors group Lear agreed to be bought by activist investor Carl Icahn.*French presidential candidate Segolene Royal is to outline her policy proposals for the first time.*The OFT is to probe debit card fees offered by retailers.*The Food Standards Agency is considering the withdrawal of processed turkey from shops across the UK.*Paul Volker, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is to head an independent review into the controversial unit at the heart of the anti-corruption drive at the World Bank.
The Lex Column:*Fortress – enjoying a mad scramble for its shares. It is hard to disagree with someone close to do the deal who said that the share price was insane and ridiculous.*Although the FTSE 100 index has been breaking new highs all week, half its constituents have under performed the broader index by 6.8%.*First Group (FGP.L)/Greyhound - Other UK operators of buses have come a cropper in the US though the buoyant share price suggests shareholders are optimistic.*Share buy-backs – there are a few caveats with the fashionable options for companies.*BP (BP.L) - Lord Brown's final pay-packet was always going to be a lightning rod but now we have a US lawyer seeking to freeze Lord Browne’s pay and retirement benefits.THE TIMES
The Business Editor's Column:*John Lasseter, the Pixar film director, is embroiled in a stock option repricing scandal. Also Steve Jobs, found and head of Apple has been chairman and CEO of Pixar – which is awkward.*HSBC's (HSBA.L) Household group in the US underwent big defaults, and there is a message: never buy into a mature book.*Camelot – the changes of its retaining its Lottery licence are about one in just two.*Sainsbury (SBRY.L) bid watchers can probably afford to take their eyes off the ball next week. Richard Campbell-Breeden, the Goldman Sachs adviser to the private equity group interested in Sainsbury, is going ski-ing.DAILY TELEGRAPH
The Comment Column:*It looks as if in the LSE (ILSE.L) bid, Nasdaq's Bob Creifeld has lived to fight another day.*With all the foreign takeovers of British firms, the Government will have to take over responsibility of defending British jobs.
The Questor Column:*Housebuilders – long term Persimmon (PSN.L) and Barratt (BDEV.L) are the best bet.*Avanti Screenmedia (ASG.L) – trading at 16 times 2008's earnings, but few forecasts can factor in the value of a satellite and orbital licence.
What the Brokers Say:*Luminar (LMR.L) – Buy.*Vodafone (VOD.L) – Buy.*National Grid (NG.L) – Hold.*British Airways (BAY.L) – Hold.*Johnson Matthey (JMAT.L) – Sell.*Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) – Sell.*Xstrata (XTA.L) – Sell.*Friends Provident (FP.L) – Sell.*Diageo (DGE.L) – Hold.THE GUARDIAN
No share news today
");
//-->
SHARECRAZY BOOKSHOP OFFER - The Poolside TycoonShareCrazy's very own Malcolm Stacey, former Radio 4 investigative reporter, reveals more closely protected tips on how to make money on the stock market. These tips are disclosed to him by scores of financial experts, including captains of industry, investment bankers, City journalists and government ministers. By Malcolm Stacey. Normal price £8.99, ShareCrazy bookshop price of £8.09. You save £0.90.......CLICK HERE
THE INDEPENDENT
The Outlook Column:*The British deficit in goods and services last year as the highest on record in nominal terms. Luckily we have the City which has helped.*Private equity activity is unstoppable until some of the bigger deals go wrong that is.DAILY MAIL
*The LSE (LSE.L) could do the most exciting thing now: try to turn the tables on Nasdaq.*Trade deficit - this is short-termism on a grand scale which can only lead to Britain becoming a client economy no longer responsible for its own future.*FirstGroup’s (FGP.L) purchase of Greyhound set off an over-enthusiastic spate of share upgrades, but it is all early days, and remember what happened to Stagecoach (SGC.L) and HSBC (HSBA.L) in the US.DAILY EXPRESS
*Rolls-Royce (RR.L) shares still trade at a discount to the European aerospace and defence sector average and for no good reason.*An inevitable stock market shake out need be very dire or over long.DAILY MIRROR
No share news todayTHE SUN
No share news todayCOMMENT AND BID NEWS
*LSE (LSE.L) was poised to see off the Nasdaq bid as its shares closed well above Friday the offer price.*FirstGroup (FGP.L) and Stagecoach (SGC.L) prepare to do battle in the US in the wake of FirstGroup’s purchase of Greyhound buses and Stagecoach plans to expand its US venture.*HBOS (HBOS.L) is paying £21 million for 5% of Sainsbury’s (SBRY.L) in-store bank.*Vodafone (VOD.L) may be pipped at the post in the bid for Hutchison Essar as a fifth contender Russian-owned Altimo was set to join the fray.*Yorkshire Water owner Kelda (KEL.L) is to sell its US business Aquarion to a consortium led by Macquarie Bank.*Student accommodation provider Unite (UTG.L) is buying a portfolio of properties for £114.5 million.*British Energy (BGY.L) shares did nothing last week after rumours that the UK Government could dispose of a chunk of its shareholder after BE released figures last Tuesday.SOME ITEMS THAT COULD INFLUENCE SHARE PRICES
*Pressure on BP (BP.L) chief Lord Browne mounted after lawyers called for a freeze on his pension and pay-off packages which could read to £70 million.*World equity markets reached new highs last week amid economic growth fears.*Rolls Royce (RR.L) chief Sir John Rose warned of the risks of selling off UK plc.*Shares in private equity and hedge fund manager Fortress soared on their New York debut.*Virgin’s Richard Branson offered £13 million to anyone who invests an economical way of ridding the atmosphere of carbon.*De La Rue (DLAR.L) shares on an upbeat trading statement.*SCS Upholstery (SUY.L) shares were down yesterday after sales had been hit by weak demand.*Big Yellow Group (BYG.L) saw chairman sold shares worth £6.7 million.*The Footsie 100 hit a new six-year peak helped by crude oil rising to over $60 million a barrel.*JJB (JJB.L) said it faced costs of £3.8 million after price fixing charges.*Goldman Sachs is to shift one of its most senior executives, Edward Forst, chief administrative officer, from New York to London as the bank adapts its management structure to the grown of its business outside the US.*US car interiors group Lear agreed to be bought by activist investor Carl Icahn.*French presidential candidate Segolene Royal is to outline her policy proposals for the first time.*The OFT is to probe debit card fees offered by retailers.*The Food Standards Agency is considering the withdrawal of processed turkey from shops across the UK.*Paul Volker, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is to head an independent review into the controversial unit at the heart of the anti-corruption drive at the World Bank.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Oil (FT)
Oil breaches $60 as market tightens
By Chris Flood
Published: February 9 2007 12:24 Last updated: February 9 2007 18:17
Oil prices pushed above $60 a barrel level on Friday for the first time since early January, helped by short-covering and growing evidence that the market is tightening as a result of output cuts introduced by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Nymex March West Texas Intermediate hit a high of $60.42 before easing back to trade 16 cents higher a $59.87 a barrel, up 1.4 per cent over the week. US crude has risen 20 per cent since dipping below the $50 level in mid-January, with colder weather boosting demand.
Speculators’ gross short positions on crude are close to record highs and hedge funds rushed to cover those position after Occidental Petroleum declared force majeure on oil and gas supplies from the Elk Hills field, one of California’s largest, on Thursday. ICE March Brent fell 11 cents to $58.67 a barrel on Friday, up 0.9 per cent over the week.
Colder weather has also supported demand for heating oil and natural gas. Nymex March Henry Hub rose 1.5 per cent to $7.865 per million British thermal units this week. Nymex March heating oil gained 2.5 per cent at $1.726 a gallon.
Gold smashed through resistance at $660 a troy ounce, surging to $665.70, helped by a second day of buying by the Quadrica fund.
Investors shrugged aside news that the International Monetary Fund was considering selling 400 tonnes of bullion as, though the plan would displace some European sales under the central bank gold agreement, it would not result in more net selling. Gold traded at $665.10 a troy ounce late in London on Friday, up 2.6 per cent this week.
Platinum hit $1,203 a tonne as strike action at South Africa’s Modikwa mine looked set to enter its third week after negotiations reached deadlock. Platinum traded at $1,192 a troy ounce, up 3 per cent this week. Hedge funds have been building long exposure with speculative positions standing just short of their April 2006 record high.
The US corn harvest is projected at 10,535m bushels this year, down 1.9 per cent on the previous year, according to the Department of Agriculture. Year-end crop inventories are expected to shrink to 752m bushels, the lowest since 1995. Nymex March corn traded 4¼ cents higher at $4.04 a bushel on Friday, 0.5 per cent firmer this week.
Base metals traded in consolidation mode after last week’s sharp falls. News about Red Kite had dried up until South Korea yesterday revealed that it had bought 500 tonnes of tin ingot recently from the hedge fund, which is rumoured to be in trouble. Traders were undecided if this was an attempt to raise funds or normal business. Tin rose 5.3 per cent this week to $12,325 a tonne.
Copper rose 4.2 per cent to $5,570 a tonne while aluminium edged 0.8 per cent lower to $2,697.50 a tonne. Nickel fell 3.5 per cent to $36,100 a tonne in spite of stocks’ remaining critically low. But zinc rallied 1.6 per cent to $3,130 a tonne.
One analyst said: “the market is trying to convice itself that it’s business as normal but some investors are questioning whether it is worth persisting with long strategies or if they need to reasses in the face of recent price weakness.”
By Chris Flood
Published: February 9 2007 12:24 Last updated: February 9 2007 18:17
Oil prices pushed above $60 a barrel level on Friday for the first time since early January, helped by short-covering and growing evidence that the market is tightening as a result of output cuts introduced by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Nymex March West Texas Intermediate hit a high of $60.42 before easing back to trade 16 cents higher a $59.87 a barrel, up 1.4 per cent over the week. US crude has risen 20 per cent since dipping below the $50 level in mid-January, with colder weather boosting demand.
Speculators’ gross short positions on crude are close to record highs and hedge funds rushed to cover those position after Occidental Petroleum declared force majeure on oil and gas supplies from the Elk Hills field, one of California’s largest, on Thursday. ICE March Brent fell 11 cents to $58.67 a barrel on Friday, up 0.9 per cent over the week.
Colder weather has also supported demand for heating oil and natural gas. Nymex March Henry Hub rose 1.5 per cent to $7.865 per million British thermal units this week. Nymex March heating oil gained 2.5 per cent at $1.726 a gallon.
Gold smashed through resistance at $660 a troy ounce, surging to $665.70, helped by a second day of buying by the Quadrica fund.
Investors shrugged aside news that the International Monetary Fund was considering selling 400 tonnes of bullion as, though the plan would displace some European sales under the central bank gold agreement, it would not result in more net selling. Gold traded at $665.10 a troy ounce late in London on Friday, up 2.6 per cent this week.
Platinum hit $1,203 a tonne as strike action at South Africa’s Modikwa mine looked set to enter its third week after negotiations reached deadlock. Platinum traded at $1,192 a troy ounce, up 3 per cent this week. Hedge funds have been building long exposure with speculative positions standing just short of their April 2006 record high.
The US corn harvest is projected at 10,535m bushels this year, down 1.9 per cent on the previous year, according to the Department of Agriculture. Year-end crop inventories are expected to shrink to 752m bushels, the lowest since 1995. Nymex March corn traded 4¼ cents higher at $4.04 a bushel on Friday, 0.5 per cent firmer this week.
Base metals traded in consolidation mode after last week’s sharp falls. News about Red Kite had dried up until South Korea yesterday revealed that it had bought 500 tonnes of tin ingot recently from the hedge fund, which is rumoured to be in trouble. Traders were undecided if this was an attempt to raise funds or normal business. Tin rose 5.3 per cent this week to $12,325 a tonne.
Copper rose 4.2 per cent to $5,570 a tonne while aluminium edged 0.8 per cent lower to $2,697.50 a tonne. Nickel fell 3.5 per cent to $36,100 a tonne in spite of stocks’ remaining critically low. But zinc rallied 1.6 per cent to $3,130 a tonne.
One analyst said: “the market is trying to convice itself that it’s business as normal but some investors are questioning whether it is worth persisting with long strategies or if they need to reasses in the face of recent price weakness.”
Friday, February 09, 2007
LME REVIEW
LME Review: Prices End Up As Stocks Fall; Doubts On Tin Supply
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Industrial metals traded in London ended the week higher Friday as stockpiles shrunk and concerns mounted over the supply of tin from key providers, though traders predict light volumes through next week as the price outlook remains clouded.
London Metal Exchange base metals prices climbed alongside rising oil and precious metals prices Friday: "What we have seen is a general move higher across the board in commodities," London-based metals analyst Nick Moore of ABN Amro said.
Three-month copper and lead prices finished near their highs for the week, triggered by a drawdown in inventories Friday.
Copper inventories dropped by 100 metric tons to 215,625 tons while lead stocks declined by 1,000 tons to 36,625 tons.
"Copper's price climb set the tone for the entire complex" and the other base metals followed, Moore said.
Still, the strength was due to traders covering their short positions rather than the beginnings of a sustained rally, he added.
With the exception of aluminum, trading volumes have been light this week, another base metals analyst said: "Many market participants sidelined this week due to the recent volatility will wait until they get a better sense of market direction before jumping back into the market," the analyst said.
In other metals, three-month tin prices climbed nearly 2% in the afternoon kerb to $12,325/ton from Thursday boosted by a combination of strong consumption, declining stocks, and uncertainty over tin supplies.
Tin stocks fell 130 tons to 10,480 tons Friday, according to LME data.
A Glencore spokesperson told Dow Jones Newswires Friday that the company hadn't been contacted by the Bolivian government regarding apparent re-nationalization plans.
Bolivian President Evo Morales said Thursday he would nationalize a mineral processing plant owned by the Swiss miner and trading house, a first step in his plans to give the Bolivian state a larger share of the country's mineral wealth.
Thursday's announcement marks a dramatic move in Morales' plans to nationalize Bolivia's mining industry though how the process will unfold is unclear.
Similarly, uncertainty plagues the future of Indonesia's tin mining operations after a recent shutdown of private mining and smelting operations on Bangka island, where the country's largest tin reserve is located.
The South Asian country produces around a third of the 360,000 tons of global annual tin output.
Elsewhere, a European Union proposal to halve the aluminum import duty was blocked from progressing to the next stage Friday. No concrete plans have been made regarding the future of the proposal.
Spot gold neared a seven-month high Friday while silver hit a two-month high. (Prices in dollar a metric ton)
3 Months Metal Bid-Ask Change from
Thursday PM kerb
Copper 5580.0-5585.0 Up 165
Lead 1610.0-1620.0 Up 36
Zinc 3120.0-3130.0 Up 5
Aluminum 2699.0-2700.0 Up 11
Nickel 36100.0-36150.0 Up 650
Tin 12325.0-12330.0 Up 175
Aluminum Alloy 2200.0-2210.0 Up 10
Aluminum Alloy 2130.0-2140.0 Up 30
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Industrial metals traded in London ended the week higher Friday as stockpiles shrunk and concerns mounted over the supply of tin from key providers, though traders predict light volumes through next week as the price outlook remains clouded.
London Metal Exchange base metals prices climbed alongside rising oil and precious metals prices Friday: "What we have seen is a general move higher across the board in commodities," London-based metals analyst Nick Moore of ABN Amro said.
Three-month copper and lead prices finished near their highs for the week, triggered by a drawdown in inventories Friday.
Copper inventories dropped by 100 metric tons to 215,625 tons while lead stocks declined by 1,000 tons to 36,625 tons.
"Copper's price climb set the tone for the entire complex" and the other base metals followed, Moore said.
Still, the strength was due to traders covering their short positions rather than the beginnings of a sustained rally, he added.
With the exception of aluminum, trading volumes have been light this week, another base metals analyst said: "Many market participants sidelined this week due to the recent volatility will wait until they get a better sense of market direction before jumping back into the market," the analyst said.
In other metals, three-month tin prices climbed nearly 2% in the afternoon kerb to $12,325/ton from Thursday boosted by a combination of strong consumption, declining stocks, and uncertainty over tin supplies.
Tin stocks fell 130 tons to 10,480 tons Friday, according to LME data.
A Glencore spokesperson told Dow Jones Newswires Friday that the company hadn't been contacted by the Bolivian government regarding apparent re-nationalization plans.
Bolivian President Evo Morales said Thursday he would nationalize a mineral processing plant owned by the Swiss miner and trading house, a first step in his plans to give the Bolivian state a larger share of the country's mineral wealth.
Thursday's announcement marks a dramatic move in Morales' plans to nationalize Bolivia's mining industry though how the process will unfold is unclear.
Similarly, uncertainty plagues the future of Indonesia's tin mining operations after a recent shutdown of private mining and smelting operations on Bangka island, where the country's largest tin reserve is located.
The South Asian country produces around a third of the 360,000 tons of global annual tin output.
Elsewhere, a European Union proposal to halve the aluminum import duty was blocked from progressing to the next stage Friday. No concrete plans have been made regarding the future of the proposal.
Spot gold neared a seven-month high Friday while silver hit a two-month high. (Prices in dollar a metric ton)
3 Months Metal Bid-Ask Change from
Thursday PM kerb
Copper 5580.0-5585.0 Up 165
Lead 1610.0-1620.0 Up 36
Zinc 3120.0-3130.0 Up 5
Aluminum 2699.0-2700.0 Up 11
Nickel 36100.0-36150.0 Up 650
Tin 12325.0-12330.0 Up 175
Aluminum Alloy 2200.0-2210.0 Up 10
Aluminum Alloy 2130.0-2140.0 Up 30
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
